The stock market volatility in January and February was largely the result of investor fear that the deflationary pressures of crashing oil and industrial commodity prices would move the global economy closer to a recession. …
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Earlier today in my MorningWord I highlighted the conundrum of the data dependent U.S. Federal Reserve, faced with U.S. economic data hitting their prior targets for employment and inflation and the possibility for renewed tightening, vs the …
Continue readingEveryone and their mother is going to opine on the jobs data this morning, so I might as well offer my quick thoughts. We will have some more action oriented stuff later. Ok, here I …
Continue readingThe S&P 500 (SPX) is set to open up 25 points, a 1.5% pop. This, after Friday’s 2% bounce that itself was a follow through from Thursday afternoon’s late day reversal. In all the SPX will …
Continue readingIn late November, heading into what was a near certainty that the U.S. Fed would put an end to their zero interest rate policy in their December FOMC meeting, we decided to put on a trade that …
Continue readingYour guess is as good as mine how the U.S. Fed crafts their message about monetary policy this week. I do assume that the reaction in U.S. markets will be volatile. The SPY at the …
Continue readingThis morning I was having a conversation with an equity and options trader who presides over a fairly large pool of risk capital, making directional and volatility oriented trades. He and I have been in …
Continue readingYesterday in my MorningWord (Skyfall for Treasury Yields?) I offered my take on the prior night Fast Money guest Raoul Pal‘s view U.S Treasury yields were likely to go lower over the course of the next year, …
Continue readingWe had Global Macro Investor‘s Raoul Pal on CNBC’s Fast Money last night. He detailed his generally gloomy outlook for the global economy and offered a fairly non-consensus view that the yield on the 10 …
Continue readingI think we can all agree that the main culprit for the 6% decline last week in U.S. equity markets was the decline in China’s currency and the downward volatility in their stock market. What is …
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