Event: Yum Brands (YUM) reports Q4 results tonight after the close. The options market is implying about a 6% one day move in either direction, which is a tad shy of the 4 qtr average …
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Spot VIX has had a fairly historic period, putting in 52 week lows in early August, seven year highs on August 24th, and now a decline back towards the historical mean. Vol is coming out …
Continue readingI assure you this post is NOT a victory lap. But over the past couple years we have had some choice words as it relates to the guidance given by Yum Brands (YUM), and specifically …
Continue readingEvent: YUM reports Q3 results tonight after the close. The options market is implying about a 5% one day move, which is rich to its 4 qtr average one day post earnings move of about …
Continue readingHere is a quick recap of trades that we initiated, closed, or debated in the week that was July 13th – July 17th:
Continue readingEvent: YUM reports Q2 results tonight after the close. The options market is implying about a 6.5% one day move which is rich to the 4 qtr avg of 3.6% and the 8 qtr avg …
Continue readingOver the last year my trading in Yum Brands (YUM) has been both right and wrong, with most recent being wrong. Since February there has been some fairly consistent build up in call open interest, …
Continue readingHere is some generally directional, untied options activity that caught my eye during Friday’s trading: 1. GE – The largest trade on the day across single stock, etf and index options was a long dated bullish …
Continue readingIn the last few months we have placed two bearish trades in YUM, one for a gain back in December in front of what I expected to be lowered Q4 guidance (here) and one for …
Continue readingPrior to YUM’s Q4 results in early February we legged into a put spread expressing the view that continued weakness in China would cause the company to lower forward guidance. The results, while mixed, did …
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