Janet Yellen speaks at 10:00 am in front of the Senate today. Traders will hang on her every word, trying to discern what it means for financial assets across the world. However, two assets will …
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The ex post facto headline writers are out in force this morning as we see the first real selling pressure in SPX futures in more than a week. Some sort of pullback after a 100 …
Continue readingSince the spring, the USD has been weak vs. developed markets and strong vs. emerging markets. On an overall basis, that adds up to weak, since most of the currency volume is in the big, …
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To get a sense for the Federal Reserve’s impact on global financial markets, look at the moves in emerging markets today: The main Turkish equity index up 7.5%, up 20% from 2 weeks ago. The …
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Risk-off reared its head after Sec. Kerry’s speech yesterday afternoon about a potential intervention in Syria. This morning, we’re seeing classic risk-off, with both EUR/USD and USD/JPY lower, and Treasuries higher, something we haven’t seen …
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Undercapitalization of the European banking system has been a lingering concern for the European economy for several years now. While the U.S. banks undertook a major capital raising program in 2008 and 2009 to replenish …
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China is starting to dominate overnight price action. Similar to how in 2010, ’11, and ’12, every comment from ECB and EU officials would cause a cheer or a jeer from international investors, the PBOC …
Continue readingThe Aussie Dollar has acted more like an emerging market currency in the past 2 months. It declined greater than 10% against the USD from mid-April to early June. That’s an enormous move for any …
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Risk appetite this year has been driven by yen weakness. (For background on why, my post here.) Global equity markets started their tremendous rally when the USD/JPY rate broke out (stronger USD, weaker Yen) in …
Continue readingLong U.S. dollars is my favorite theme for the rest of 2013. My favorite post of the year is my Macro Wrap that I wrote on May 15th, laying out my reasons for favoring the …
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