On June 22nd we detailed a way to fade what I thought was too much too soon for shares of Verizon (VZ) as global bond yields continued to tumble causing an insatiable bid for defensive …
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I have a confession and then an apology to make to RiskReversal readers or those who watch my market commentary on CNBC. First the confession. Not for a moment in the last couple months have …
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In case you missed it, the Fed speak over the last week, and the Minutes of the the FOMC’s April meeting put to be bed the debate whether or not their June FOMC get together is a “live” …
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Last week in this space (MorningWord 5/5/16: Bail Bonds – $TLT) I had some thoughts on the direction of U.S. Treasury yields (below). Regular readers know that I have been fairly steadfast in my belief that the U.S. Federal …
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In late 2015 we initiated a long term long position in Pfizer (PFE) with the idea that we could own something that was unfairly punished on the merger announcement with Ireland based Allergan. We wanted …
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Raoul Pal, the founder of the Global Macro Investor, is one of the few guests we have on CNBC’s Fast Money program that connects macro dots back to the stock market in a way that even a monkey …
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Event: IBM reports Q1 results tonight after the close. The options market is implying about a 4.5% one day move tomorrow, which is about inline with the 4 qtr one day avg move. With the …
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Much of the volatility in global risk assets since mid 2014 is a result of 20% rally in U.S. Dollar (DXY) from its May 2014 lows to its March 2015 highs: The DXY rallied as …
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On February 19th I tweeted the following chart. It’s a three year chart of the Value Line Arithmetic index, an equal weighted measure of 1700 or so U.S. stocks: The Value Line Arithmetic,equal weight 1700 …
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Event: General Electric (GE) reports Q4 results tomorrow before the open. The options market is implying about a 3.5% one day move, which is essentially in line with its one day rally post Q3 results on …
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