February 2, 2015 by Dan • Commentary

On January 23rd UPS pre-announced weak Q4 results (read 8K here):  “primarily due to the underperformance of the U.S. Domestic segment” and suggested that 2015 results would be slight below prior guidance as “increased pension …

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January 26, 2015 by Dan • Commentary

Procter & Gamble (PG) reports their fiscal Q2 results tomorrow before the open, the options market is implying about a 1.7% one day move which is a tad shy of the 1.9% 4 qtr avg. …

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January 23, 2015 by Dan • Commentary

Despite the tax cut consumers and businesses are receiving from lower oil, get ready to see the mother of all excuses for earnings misses in the term currency headwind.  It has been my view that …

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July 30, 2014 by Dan • Commentary

Yesterday, following UPS’s disappointing Q2 results and weak guidance we laid out our bearish thesis (below) but wanted to wait for a little bit of a bounce before we decided to trade as we did …

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