On January 23rd UPS pre-announced weak Q4 results (read 8K here): “primarily due to the underperformance of the U.S. Domestic segment” and suggested that 2015 results would be slight below prior guidance as “increased pension …
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Heading into the last trading day of January with the futures marked down 1% and I think it is safe to say that we will have a down month, with the potential for a 3% …
Continue readingYesterday we made a bearish play into PG’s Q2 results reported this am (read below). With the stock down after the miss we are going to take the quick profit and move on. But this …
Continue readingProcter & Gamble (PG) reports their fiscal Q2 results tomorrow before the open, the options market is implying about a 1.7% one day move which is a tad shy of the 1.9% 4 qtr avg. …
Continue readingDespite the tax cut consumers and businesses are receiving from lower oil, get ready to see the mother of all excuses for earnings misses in the term currency headwind. It has been my view that …
Continue readingA new closing high for the S&P 500 index yesterday. While overall options volumes were light, there was aggressive buying in one line in SPY options. 1. SPY – The Dec20th 215 calls traded over 350k …
Continue readingOn the last day of July I took a bearish view on UPS with the thought that the earnings gap at $100 should serve as strong technical resistance with the backdrop of poor fundamentals. The stock …
Continue readingCOST officially broke out today but the signs were there for the past week and a half. This is a trade that we managed badly and I want to go over how we should have …
Continue readingDan put on a bearish UPS trade at the end of July after the company’s weak earnings report. This was the trade (full post here): Trade: UPS ($99.45) Bought to Open Sept 100/95/90 Put Butterfly …
Continue readingYesterday, following UPS’s disappointing Q2 results and weak guidance we laid out our bearish thesis (below) but wanted to wait for a little bit of a bounce before we decided to trade as we did …
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