The rally in the past 3 months has been particularly surprising since the former bull market leader, technology, has been a serious laggard. I’ve taken that as a long-term warning sign for the health of …
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What’s the market’s verdict on the best-looking region for investment over the past year? Europe of course gets all the negative headlines. China has transitioned from a laggard in early 2012, to a leader over …
Continue readingOne of the first themes of options trading that I learned on the trading desk was that the best predictor of future volatility is recent realized volatility, all else equal. Best predictor does not mean …
Continue readingThe VIX has now risen for 4 straight days, albeit from 5 year lows. But the VIX has done that while the SPX index has actually ticked gradually higher, as it’s up 0.5% on balance …
Continue readingWelcome to 2013. SPX futures are up 20 points after the House passed the Senate’s fiscal cliff compromise. What do I think of the Fiscal Cliff Rally? Here is what I wrote on Dec. 10th …
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