With Operation Twist ending, what’s the Fed likely to do today? Are there any new signals that the Fed is likely to send about monetary policy for the next 6 months? The Fed has shown …
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I’ve played CMI twice in the past 2 months, both bearish bets. The first I closed as a nice winner, and the second I closed for essentially flat. My longstanding thesis has been that CMI …
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In an otherwise relatively quiet overnight session, the Shanghai composite broke down to levels not seen since 2009. Here is the 5 year weekly chart: It’s a very steady 3 year downtrend, eerily …
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I wrote in my November 15th Macro Wrap that it was “about time to get bullish” with my main reasons for the switch in stance as follows: …I’m seeing signs from other markets that …
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Bulls, it’s almost your time. I’m officially taking off my bear hat today, and eyeing the bull hat in the corner. I haven’t put it on just yet, but I’m pretty close to reaching for …
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To get a sense for the magnitude of U.S. outperformance over the last 3 years, check out this chart that plots the SPX index, Euro Stoxx index, Hang Seng, and Nikkei since Oct 2009: …
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During earnings season, we’ve decided to run more earnings previews and less macro commentary. You can read my CMG Q3 earnings preview from this morning. Here is a quick summary of markets overnight: The Euro …
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Sometimes the Macro doesn’t matter. There are thousands and thousands of stocks that trade actively around the world each day. In any economy, in war and in peace, in feast and famine, some companies are …
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What is the underlying earnings power of S&P 500 companies? Clearly, the market has ratcheted up its expectations for that earnings power in the past 3 months. The market’s 15% rally speaks to that. While …
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Most surprising to me about yesterday’s price action in the broader markets is that it happened gradually over the course of the entire morning. The SPX futures market was indicating a market set to open …
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