August 3, 2014 by Dan • Commentary

Here is a quick recap of all of the trades that we initiated, closed, managed, expired and considered (Name That Trades) in the week that was July 28th to August 1st: [hr] Monday July 28th: Trade: …

Continue reading
July 30, 2014 by Dan • Commentary

Yesterday, following UPS’s disappointing Q2 results and weak guidance we laid out our bearish thesis (below) but wanted to wait for a little bit of a bounce before we decided to trade as we did …

Continue reading
July 29, 2014 by Dan • Commentary

UPS reported earnings this morning missed consensus estimates and guided down for the balance of the year, from the WSJ:  the company said it now expects per-share earnings in a range of $4.90 to $5, …

Continue reading
July 7, 2014 by Dan • Commentary

Who would have thunk it – a 40 basis point sell off in the S&P 500 causes a 10% rally in the VIX.  While the price action today in the broad market seems fairly orderly, …

Continue reading
January 29, 2014 by Dan • Commentary

In the last few weeks, we have seen some fairly bad earnings disappointments from components of the Transport sector like KSU in rails, JBHT in trucking and UPS in air and ground.  FDX reported their …

Continue reading
December 18, 2013 by Enis • Commentary

MorningWord 12/18/13:  A number of large industrial companies have provided us with business updates and 2014 guidance in the past week.  While industrial stocks have generally performed well in 2013, their outlook for 2014 is …

Continue reading
December 17, 2013 by Dan • Commentary

FDX reports their fiscal Q2 earnings before the open tomorrow and the options market is implying about a 5% one day move, which is rich to the 4 qtr avg move of about 3.5%. The …

Continue reading
October 22, 2013 by Enis • Commentary

FDX is another name that has gone nuts in the last 2 weeks, as it broke out to a new all-time high above 120, leading to an immediate 10% rally from there in the past …

Continue reading