MorningWord 10/23/15: Fools or Geniuses? $SPY

by Dan October 23, 2015 9:59 am • Commentary

Three of the largest stocks on planet earth (AMZN, GOOGL & MSFT) are gapping up 10% this morning, gaining more than $100 billion in market cap in a flash.  What strikes me is that in the case of AMZN & GOOGL the brilliant results reported last night were not unexpected, and sentiment towards both stocks was quite positive heading into the print. The same can be said for MCD’s 8% explosion yesterday, also a gap to new all time highs:

MCD 15 year chart from Bloomberg
MCD 15 year chart from Bloomberg

Its hard to deny the price action, and even harder to try to create a contrarian bearish narrative, especially when you consider what is shaping up to be a parade of earnings gaps, with TXN, EBAY & CTXS all up 12% or more yesterday:

TXN 1yr chart from Bloomberg
TXN 1yr chart from Bloomberg

 

EBAY 1yr chart from Bloomberg
EBAY 1yr chart from Bloomberg

 

CTXS 1yr chart from Bloomberg
CTXS 1yr chart from Bloomberg

The only question I have this morning, with the S&P now back up on the year, and a few percent from its prior all time highs, is what the heck does the FOMC have to say next week, 6 weeks after their caution about global growth sparked a 7% sell off from Sept 17th to Sept 29th?  If the commitment to QE from the ECB and the today’s rate cut in China gives the FOMC faith that their central banker friends over seas are doing their part to keep this ship afloat, then shouldn’t it set the stage for the first interest rate increase here in the U.S. in nine years sooner than later?  I have no clue, and frankly I am dumbfounded by this price action.  This market making fools look like geniuses. Oh and I’m merely a fool for offering a skeptical tone from time to time.