Nearly a month ago we expressed a near term bearish view on LULU in the form of outright puts (when the stock was 4% higher). To refresh, here was the trade:
TRADE: LULU ($66.70) Buy to open May 65 put for 1.30
Now with the stock just below $65, and the puts set to be worthless in a few hours if the stock is 65 or higher, we have a decision to make. Here are the choices:
1. Risk a rally back above $65 and the trade is worthless.
2. Close now with stock $64.90, sell at .20 for 1.10 loss
3. Roll the view out to June which should catch Q1 results.
At this point the stock feels heavy, having declined nearly 8% from the 52 week highs made in early April. But looking out to June expiration, the 62.50 puts are offered at $2, with a break-even at $60.50, down 7%. That seems a tad hefty.
At this point I think it makes sense to close the position and look for a better entry on a bounce prior to Q1 earnings expected in mid June.
Action: Sell to Close LULU May 65 puts at .20 for a 1.10 loss
THIS WAS VERY SLOPPY TRADING ON MY PART. Yesterday, after the open, when the stock was below $64 I had one shot to get out for what I paid (or close to it) AND I DIDN’T. At that point the risk/reward was not good and I should have been happy with getting out for even.
I am printing the loss here, but am inclined to try to see if the stock continues to weaken throughout the day, but I will need to trade out of them by day end if they look to be in the money.
[hr]
Previous Post April 17th, 2015: New Trade – $LULU: Downward Dog?
Since the start of April we have made a few defined risk bullish Trades in consumer discretionary stocks:
Macy’s (M): Trade Update – Macy’s ($M) – The Parade Rolls On
Nike (NKE): New Trade – $NKE With Wings?
Walmart (WMT): New Trade – People of $WMT
These trades were in large part to attempt to pick some stocks that we thought would be viewed as winners if the improving jobs data from January and February were to continue into the Spring. One thought is that while we are broadly skeptical about the health of the economic recovery, the combination of lower oil and declining jobless claims should be a perceived benefit to certain stocks in the consumer discretionary space. That being said, have placed bearish trades on a few sectors and market caps that we deem to be vulnerable in the event we see a turn lower in the data:
QQQ: New Trade – $QQQ The Curtains
IWM: New Trade – $IWM: Russell, Your Looks Are Becoming a Problem
XLP: New Trade – $XLP: Did You Try Staples?
But I find the following charts troubling:
NKE had recently broken out to new highs on positive news, and quickly gave up all the gains and now breaking near term support at $100:
WMT having had a massive breakout late last year only to give back all the gains, and now blast through 1 year support at $80:
Both these trades are suddenly at risk, but when I entered both I was very clear that the premium that I was risking was a very clear stop on the downside as at important support levels. While it sucks to having losing trades on these, I feel pretty decent as to how and why they were structured.
Which brings me to Lululemon (LULU) a stock that since last fall has seen a bit of a resurrection, up 85% from the 52 week lows:
The company suffered from a series of misfires in 2014, but has seemingly righted the ship. But here is the problem. The stock’s recent gains (up 20% on 2015 already) more than compensates for renewed enthusiasm as the stock is trading at 35x expected fiscal 2016 earnings growth of 15%. Especially when you consider that massive NKE trades 25x expected fiscal 2016 earnings growth of 12%. NKE reported earlier this week that they are becoming very focused on women and are committing serious resources to increase sales of women’s apparel by $2 billion by 2017. What’s interesting to me about that $2 billion number, that is equivalent to LULU’s expected sales this year.
LULU doesn’t report earnings again until June, but in the meantime, if NKE is rolling over, then I think it’s a pretty good bet that LULU is not far behind.
TRADE: LULU ($66.70) Buy to open May 65 put for 1.30
Break-Even on May Expiration:
Profits: gains below $63.70
Losses: between 63.70 and 65 lose up to 1.30, max loss of 1.30 above 65
Rationale: On a move to the long strike I will look to spread into a vertical by selling a lower strike put to create a vertical put spread and lower my break-even on the trade.