As I mentioned in yesterday’s COO on the XRT trade, this structure is working well and we would probably roll the short put part out. Today seems like as good a day as any considering the Fed announcement tomorrow and we’re able to turn this into a vertical in March at next to no risk:
ACTION – Bought to close the XRT (92.70) Dec 90 put for .20, sold to open the March 85 put at 1.65
New position – Long the March 90/85 put spread for .25
Breakevens on March expiration: losses of .25 above 89.75, gains of up to 4.75 below 89.75 with max gain at 85 or below.
This roll takes off about 12 short deltas. It’s not exactly locking in profits as those current profits are still at risk, but the overall risk of the trade is next to nothing and we have until March to have a possible big winner.
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original post:
On a few occasions of late I have described my aversion to stepping in front of what appeared to be an impending breakout in retail stocks heading into the holiday season (reprinted below). But with the breakout having occurred in many of the largest cap retail stocks, and with most earnings / forward guidance out of the way, it makes sense to consider the trade set up once we get past the hotly anticipated shopping days in the coming week (Black Friday and Cyber Monday) and into the home stretch to the Christmas holiday. I have a couple anecdotal take-aways. First, the pre-Black Friday deals that I am reading about lead me to believe this will likely be the most promotional holiday season on record, which doesn’t bode well for margins. Also, no matter what your opinion is of Apple (AAPL) as a stock, the company’s products will likely dominate big ticket purchases in electronics with recently refreshed iPhones but more importantly, new iPads and what is sure to be a heavy push on Beats headphones and speakers.
As I said in yesterday’s MorningWord:
While I have been very wrong as a pundit to voice negativity about chasing some of these stocks into and out of Q3 results (Macy’s 2 weeks ago, with Best Buy today’s example), I assume Q4 holiday sales on a gross basis will be as good as it gets for a while. I suspect margins will be atrocious, and Q1 commentary on the space will be one of tempered forward expectations for the first half of 2015.
If the stock market is in fact a discounting mechanism, then the stellar holiday sales are probably already priced into most of the stocks making new all time highs, with valuations stretched above a market multiple. So if you are chasing runaway breakouts when the news flow and sentiment can’t be better (heading into a make or break season) it could be time to discount that enthusiasm, recognizing the potential for a post holiday hangover. Oh and one more thing, remember the weather in Q1 and the number it did on Q1 GDP, well things ain’t shaping up a whole lot better with the polar vortex in the Northeast and so we can expect to hear that excuse once again.
To sum up, Q4 sales may be hot but I assume profitability will be concentrated in Cupertino and I think it is safe to say that the news overnight about heightened stimulus abroad suggests that the global economy is weaker than many think, which was also a concern of the Federal Reserve from their latest meeting minutes. Much like last year I am expecting downward volatility in Q1 resulting from global growth concerns, and investor concern over our ability to de-couple from the rest of the world.
Despite lower oil, I think Q4 sales may be as good as it gets for many retailers here in the U.S. and I want to set up a trade where I sell some short dated premium to help finance owning longer dated puts that will capture most Q4 results/Q1 guidance in Jan and Feb.
So here is the trade:
XRT ($92.93) Buy Dec / March 90 Put Spread for 1.70
-Sell 1 December 90 Put at .70
-Buy 1 March 90 Put for 2.40
Break-Even on December Expiration:
Profits in this trade are maximized at $90 in the etf on Dec expiration. at that point the trade can either be closed for a profit or rolled into a further expiration on the short put side of the calendar or a simple vertical put spread within March expiration. Losses in this stucture will be if there’s a large move in either direction before December expiration. Either in the form of a parabolic breakout to the upside or a crash to the downside.
Rationale: At today’s highs the XRT was up 16% from the October 15th lows but has given up most of today’s early gains. I would expect some sort of consolidation of recent gains as many components have made runaway breakouts that have already incorporated a lot of good news. $90 seems like a very logical level to pull back and consolidate at the prior breakout level.
If the etf were to come back to $90 prior to Dec expiration I would look to cover Dec puts and sell a lower strike put in Jan or Feb, making a calendar, or more turn into a vertical by selling a lower strike put in March.