Yesterday Dan laid out three bullish trade ideas into Twitter’s analyst day. The stock has indeed taken off from yesterday’s three and a half month lows on a positively received analyst meeting. With the stock now at $42.50 (up nearly 7.5% on the day) I wanted to revisit the 3 different trade structures (original post below) and go over why they performed the way they did.
Let’s do a little PnL on the three and discuss the differences in risk/reward that was required for those gains. Plus how they would need to be managed today.
1. TWTR ($39.58) Buy Nov weekly 42/44 1×2 call spread for .06
Cost basis: .06 – Current mark: .40
Amazing return on a percentage basis. The risk was a fast gap above 44 (highly unlikely) and was risking such a small amount in case the stock didn’t go higher that this was essentially a very realistic lotto ticket with the potential to make 2.44 on a .06 bet. However, the ratio nature of the spread means that it is not simply a .06 bet like a .06 call would be. There is margin involved in this trade with the naked call. So at first glance the return looks alot better than it actually is. Still, this is a great structure that had very little risk on that extra short call. If I did this trade I’d be giving it some time as my breakeven is 42.06 on the downside and 43.94 on the upside. Ideally you’d want the strength to continue into Friday and try to ride this thing out as long as possible with the stock still above $42.
2. TWTR ($39.58) Nov weekly 40/42.50/45 Call ButterFly for .45
Cost basis: .45 – Current mark: 1.15
A great one day return on a multi legged structure that had very little risk versus owning stock. The main this with this trade is waiting for the rest of the intrinsic value to come in the form of decay. The structure would close on Friday worth 2.50 is the stock stayed at 42.50 so from here on out it’s a waiting game of balancing the risk reward of a move towards 40 or to 45 versus the more than a dollar of decay that could be collected.
3. TWTR ($39.58) Buy the Jan 35/45 Risk Reversal for even money
Cost basis: 0 (but with margin like stock) – Current mark: 1.45
This is the trade that most approximated stock over the long term but because of that needs the stock to keep on going higher in order to really be a great trade. The 45 calls are still out-of-the-money and the stock going sideways from here means only small gains versus the risk profile of the trade. The good thing about the structure is it’s fun to manage when it goes your direction initially. Even after only one day the 35 puts could be closed and the 45 calls spread (by selling the Jan 50 calls for instance) to turn the risk reversal inot a defined risk call spread for a cost much less than its current mark to market.
Original Post Nov 11th, 2014: Name That Trade – $TWTR: Analyst Probe
Tomorrow at noon eastern, Twitter will be holding their first ever analyst meeting in San Francisco. The options market is expecting a weekly move of about 5% in either direction. Sentiment seems downright horrible heading into the event, which kind of has me interested in taking the other side of the trade as it is getting harder to find a soul to say a positive word about the company, management and the stock at the moment. Here was my commentary from yesterday:
Every word out of CEO Dick Costolo will be highly scrutinized, and I suspect there is little that he can say that can win back investors, Wall Street analysts or the financial press/ tech blogosphere in the short-term. Here is a pretty succinct compilation of the issues dogging Costolo from Business Insider, here.
I am by no means in the camp that Costolo has to go, and frankly I suspect it’s a tad premature, despite what seems like a revolving door of senior executives. Let’s not lose sight of the fact that TWTR’s co-founder’s Jack Dorsey and Evan Williams chair and sit on the board, with a few massive venture capitalist who are all top shareholders. I think it is safe to say that with the stock still up 50% from its IPO price a year ago, the board’s interests are clearly matched with investors. This is not Dick Costolo’s board – it’s one comprised of the founders and largest shareholders.
Here is the problem though – Costolo has lost credibility with investors and some in the analyst community given his inability to clearly articulate a plan to re-accelerate user growth and engagement. As regular readers know, we have a fairly bullish long term view for TWTR, as the current marekt cap does not reflect the scarcity value of such a unique social property. It is my view the world doesn’t get the immediate neccesity of TWTR’s product offereing, but they will. I also suspect that Google or Microsoft will try to buy them at some point in the next couple years (more recent thoughts here andhere).
I am positively disposed to the story, but fear there is little that management can and will say at the moment that leads shares back up to the mid to high $40s in the very near term. At some point with a 3 handle I would close my eyes and buy shares as I did back in July prior to TWTR’s Q2 results (read here).
At this point let’s see where the stock is trading in the morning prior to the event but I wanted to lay out a few trades that I would be inclined to trade depending upon risk tolerance and conviction:
Ratio Call Spread, low probability of success, but low risk on a downward move, or a move up of up to 16%, but risk if stock has a massive gap to upside (above 45.94):
TWTR ($39.58) Buy Nov weekly 42/44 1×2 call spread for .06
-Buy 1 Nov weekly 42 call for .24
-Sell 2 Nov weekly 44 calls at .09 each or .18 total
Break-Even on Nov weekly Expiration:
Profits: between 42.06 and 44 make up to 1.94, payout trails off between 44 and 45.94. Max gain of 1.94 at 44, up 11%,
Losses: losses of .06 below 42, and losses of .06 and penny for penny above 46, up 16%
For those who want to define their risk:
TWTR ($39.58) Nov weekly 40/42.50/45 Call ButterFly for .45
-Buy 1 Nov wkly 40 call for .75
-Sell 2 Nov wkly 42.50 calls at .18 each or .36 total
-Buy 1 Nov wkly 45 call for .06
Break-Even on Nov weekly Expiration:
Profits: between 40.45 and 44.55 make up to 2.05 with max gain of 2.05 at 42.50
Losses: up to .45 btwn 40 & 40.45 and btwn 44.55 and 45, with max loss of .45 below 40 and above 45
For those who are looking to take a longer view than just tomorrow’s event:
TWTR ($39.58) Buy the Jan 35/45 Risk Reversal for even money
-Sell the Jan 35 Put at 1.20
-Buy the Jan 45 call for 1.20
Break-Even on Jan Expiration:
Profits: gains above 45
Losses: below 35
PnL will rise as stock gets closer to long call strike, and decline as stock gets closer to short put strike. This trade structure has 52 deltas to it, so in the near term the PnL will move .52 for every dollar move.
WE WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW PRIOR TO THE EVENT, and decide how to express a contrarian bullish view. It is our sense that poor sentiment and an oversold stock could set up for a short squeeze.