Name That Trade – $TWTR : SubTweet

by Dan February 6, 2014 3:21 pm • Commentary

As my esteemed colleague/editor @CCLagator so aptly titled my thoughts in my earlier post on Twitter’s Q4 and guidance “Flushed Down the TWTR“, I think it is safe to say that’s exactly how Twitter holders are feeling today, like turds.  On Friday we detailed a long stock alternative in an effort to take advantage of heightened implied volatility (here), but to be fair this was not a stock that we would have touched with a 10 foot pole, and for the most part still wouldn’t until it had a 4 handle on it.

Aside from the quick bounce this morning after the down 25% opening, the stock has seen few upticks and seems poised to close on the lows.   The chart since IPO below, shows just how crucial a near term support level the stock is sitting on at $50, as there is not real support until $45 and then $40:

[caption id="attachment_35957" align="aligncenter" width="589"]TWTR since IPO from Bloomberg TWTR since IPO from Bloomberg[/caption]

Heading into last night’s prints there were obviously few certainties, save one, that implied volatility (IV), or the price of options was most definitely going to come in after the results.  The chart below of IV since options were listed in the stock shortly after its IPO shows the ramp in vol with the stock’s year edn rise in 2013 and today’s collapse which is likely to continue. [private]

[caption id="attachment_35958" align="aligncenter" width="589"]TWTR 30 day at the money IV from Bloomberg TWTR 30 day at the money IV from Bloomberg[/caption]

If we were inclined to play for a bounce in the stock, assuming it holds $50, we would want to chose a defined risk structure that also benefits from decreasing implied vol, and in the money call butterfly. This is not a trade we’re doing at the moment but we may step in a do it if the stock looks like it will hold today’s lows as the stock could then work back towards its moving averages over the next few weeks.:

Hypothetical Trade:  TWTR ($51.05) Buy Feb 28th 50/55/60 Call Butterfly for 1.10

-Buy 1 Feb 28th 50 call for 3.50

-Sell 2 Feb 28th 55 calls at 1.40 each or 2.90 total

-Buy 1 Feb 28th 60 calls for .50

Break-Even on Feb 28th Expiration:

Profits:  btwn 51.10 and 58.90 make up to 3.90, max gain of 3.90 at 55

Losses: btwn 51.10 and 50 and btwn 58.90 and 60 lose up to 1.10, max loss of 1.10 below 50 and above 60






Original Post Feb 6th, 2014:  MorningWord 2/6/14: Flushed Down the $TWTR

On the surface, TWTR’s Q4 results and forward guidance beat expectations on most financial metrics, yet the stock is down more than 20% in the pre-market as growth in monthly active users (mau) was a mere 4%, to 241 million last quarter, causing analysts to model zero domestic growth much sooner than originally thought.   The other issue in the report was user engagement, as Timeline Views declined 6% year over year and 8% from the prior quarter.

Despite the stock’s recent stability in a less than stable market in 2014, Wall Street Analysts have been far from bullish heading into last night’s print, with only 7 buy ratings, 13 holds, and 12 sells, with an average 12 month price target of $50, 20% below where it went out last night. This morning, there has already been a handful of downgrades, some to sell with price targets 20% below where it is trading in the pre-market.

Additionally, short interest has been rising rapidly, and was last recorded by Bloomberg at 40% of the float. Did the analyst community learn their lesson from the pre and post FB IPO debacle?   Possibly, but the guidance is now out of the bag, and analyst and investors are left to make non-stop comparisons to the only other real publicly traded pure play in Social Media – FB.  In a research note this morning, Bernstein analyst Carlos Kirjner made the following observation about FB’s earlier domestic user growth, and how investors may want to think about TWTR’s potential, or lack there of:

when Facebook had roughly the same size of Twitter in North America, it was adding about 13 million new MAUs a quarter (vs. Twitter’s 1 million). Here is another way to look at this: if Twitter quadruples the number of new MAUs it adds a quarter (vs. 4Q13), it would take it about 9 years to get to 200M domestic MAUs, Facebook’s current number.

After listening to last night’s Q4 conference call to suggest that the QnA section was nothing short of combative would be misleading.  It appeared that one analyst after another started their question with something like, “not to beat a dead horse”, but the takeaway was clear, the analyst community had a very hard time seeing CEO Dick Costolo’s vision for re-accelerating user growth and engagement.

TWTR’s valuation is ridiculous by any metric, but as we’ve seen so often over the past few years, many internet stocks have not traded based on traditional valuation metrics.  So the severe reaction in TWTR is a bit of an outlier, but the stock’s move lower is just the most recent example of what happens to hot story stocks with little fundamental support when the story hits a bump in the road.

Investors care about Valuation today, they didn’t yesterday, and they will likely not again at some point in the future.   Due to the scarcity of pure play publicly traded social media companies, I suspect TWTR will remain a must own for most tech and growth funds.  Investors have short memories and using sentiment in FB in the quarters following its May 2012 IPO as a guide, the TWTR story is likely far from done. But this morning, people are looking at it in a very different way than they look at Facebook.