Trade Update $CMG: Closing Losing Bearish Put Trade

by Dan October 25, 2013 9:57 am • Commentary

On Tuesday took at shot on a defined risk attempt at picking at top in CMG.  I kept it simple just buying short dated puts playing for a quick reversal from the all time highs, much like some of the Nasdaq high-fliers had done in that session.  The trade has not worked, and the stock makes new highs everyday, this is not a position worth hanging onto as the puts will just continue to decay at an increasingly rapid pace if the stock consolidates here or drifts higher.  I am going to hold to my stop and cut my losses.

Action: Sold to Close CMG ($524) Nov 515 Put at 8.00 for a 4.00 loss.



Original Post Oct 22nd, 2013:   New Trade – $CMG: An Enigma Wrapped In A Tortilla

As I am sitting here watching the reversal in NFLX, almost a 15% reversal from this morning’s all time highs, I can’t help but to look for a similar situation in a very overvalued stock, albeit not a web based one. CMG is a burrito company that has had fabulous growth and has executed very well in a difficult consumer environment.   But come on people… this is a freaking burrito company trading at 5.25x sales and 52x earnings.

I want to make a near term bearish bet that a lot of the good news is in the stock, but I want to do with defined risk, and a stop on top of that.

TRADE: CMG ($514.50) Bought the Nov 515 Puts for 12.00

I will look to spread by selling lower strike put on a down move, or cut my losses if the stock is $530 or higher. Trade breaks even on Nov expiration at $503. This is a reversal play and it will be clear fairly quickly if that reversal is in the cards. If it doesn’t happen, I’ll close the trade for a small loss. If it does reverse there are several trade management options that we’ll explore.