VIX spot has behaved similarly in the past week to the two prior instances in the past year when it briefly moved above 20 – a rapid, relentless move lower to the 12-13 area:
The action in the VIX around here will be interesting, as VIX spot has not spent much time below 12 since early 2007. VIX Futures have also seen a big move lower, though the week-over-week comparison is less drastic since optimism for a deal really took hold last Thursday and Friday.
Here is last week’s snapshot:
Compare that to today’s snapshot:
Nov13 to Jun14 VIX Futures are all down 1-2 points. VIX Futures are not placing any special importance on the Jan-Feb political negotiations, as the Futures curve shows no kink in that area.
Finally, no major asset class (stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities) has implied volatility above its 52 week average except for gold (which is only a bit above). In short, for better or for worse, most asset classes are not pricing in much movement in the coming weeks.