AAPL has been directionless for the past 6 weeks. The chart does show some constructive signs overall though:
The stock’s clean breakout above the 200 day ma and the 465 resistance area in mid-August after Icahn’s famous tweet was the move that really ended the stock’s 9 month downtrend. Since that breakout though, the stock has been stuck. Yet, perhaps the most positive aspect of the price action was that the mid-September breakdown back below both the 465 level and the 200 day moving average was quickly reversed.
The stock’s 50 day ma is still rising, and the 200 day ma is now flattening out. The 450-465 area has established itself as crucial long-term support. Below there, all bets are off, but buyers are going to be aggressive when prices drop near there, as the risk/reward setup has become quite attractive as the momentum in the name has changed.
The stock’s 7 month basing process was essentially a transfer of AAPL stock out of weak hands (likely more focused on earnings growth) and into strong hands (likely more focused on value). Those strong hands are more likely to be patient given their good entry on the investment. We’re still long the AAPL Oct/Nov 500 calendar, and are still of the bias to buy AAPL on dips, whatever the headlines that cause the moves.