VIX spot (and VIX futures) were down for 6 straight weeks from the week ending June 21st until this week. But the VIX rallied this week as the market is down a bit more than 1% on the week, though hardly much of a move in the broader context. Not surprisingly then, though the VIX is higher, the move was modest.
Here is last week’s snapshot:
Compare that to today’s snapshot:
However, this week’s move was not a parallel move higher in all VIX futures. Aug-Nov VIX Futures were just a touch higher (0-0.2 point), but the Dec to Apr14 futures were actually a bit lower (though again 0-0.2 point).
For the back end to move higher at all, realized volatility needs to pick up. Or else, the market could go down on low volume like this week, and the back end of the VIX futures could still not move higher, as they are already starting at a quite high level relative to realized volatility this year.