Macro Wrap – Will Today’s FOMC Mark Any Reversals in Year-to-Date Trends? $SPY, $TLT, $UUP, $GLD

by Enis July 31, 2013 7:55 am • Commentary

The Federal Reserve release is at 2:00 pm EDT today.  Interestingly, the S&P 500 is not too far from where it was trading on June 19th (when it was around 1655), the last FOMC release date.  There has been a lot of price action in the interim, but we’re close to the same place today.

Since today’s news could be a major catalyst for macro moves, I wanted to do a quick recap of the performance of major macro assets year-to-date in 2013, all in U.S. Dollar terms:

Stock indices:

  • S&P 500 – Up 18.2%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 – Up 5.0%
  • Nikkei – Up 16.7%
  • Hang Seng – Down 3.5%
  • Bovespa – Down 28.3%

Bonds:

  • TLT – Down 11.5%
  • LQD – Down 5.3%
  • HYG – Down 0.7%
  • EMB – Down 10.4%

Currencies:

  • Euro – Up 0.5%
  • Yen – Down 11.3%
  • Pound – Down 6.5%
  • Aussie Dollar – Down 13.2%
  • Canadian Dollar – Down 3.6%

Commodities:

  • Gold – Down 20.8%
  • Silver – Down 35.2%
  • WTI Crude Oil – Up 11.2%
  • Brent Crude Oil – Down 4.0%
  • Copper – Down 15.6%
  • Natural Gas – Up 2.6%
  • Corn – Down 29.8%

Some divergences within asset classes, but broadly speaking, stocks up, bonds down, dollar up, commodities down.  Will today’s news mark any reversals in those year-to-date trends?  As always, we’ll only know in hindsight.