Chart of the Day – $P the “Netflix of Radio”?

by Enis July 1, 2013 1:28 pm • Commentary

Pandora is a name we discussed on today’s “Talking Numbers” segment on Yahoo Finance.  The stock is up 5% today (and up about 30% in the past 7 trading days) after MS upgraded it with the snazzy headline that Pandora is the “Netflix of Radio” going forward.

My view was that if Pandora can indeed maintain its market-leading position in the Internet Radio space, then it has a chance to grow into its valuation.  That’s a tall order given the sharks circling around it.  Analysts project it to earn around $0.31 in calendar year 2014.  In other words, the bulk of the current value for the stock is assigned to its profits 2+ years away.  Perhaps many buyers are interested in the stock because of its potential value to an acquirer as an attractive asset to plug into its ecosystem.  As a standalone business, it’s a more difficult proposition.

In any case, the technical situation in Pandora is quite interesting.  The stock briefly traded above $20 today, the first time the stock has touched that level (in red) since July 2011:

Lifetime daily chart of P, with 50 day ma in pink, Courtesy of Bloomberg
Lifetime daily chart of P, with 50 day ma in pink, Courtesy of Bloomberg

The breach and then pullback today off of $20 makes that level even more important going forward.  Interestingly, short interest has hardly declined in the past 6 months, despite the massive rally in the stock:

Total shares of short interest, Courtesy of Bloomberg
Total shares of short interest, Courtesy of Bloomberg

The elevated short interest (still about 25% of float) continues to represent potential buying in the future.  But for now, $20 remains important resistance.  This stock is too much of a wild card for me, so I don’t plan to get involved, but interesting setup nonetheless.