Trade Update June 24th, 2013: CMI is now down about 10% from my entry last month, catching up to the international market weakness in the past few days. The stock is breaking the 200 day moving average today on large volume.
The original plan on this trade was to take it off on a move to the 200 day ma, which has occurred today. For those so inclined, taking the trade off for about 2.5x here is not a bad alternative, and of course, pull the trigger on the trade if that’s your style.
However, instead of taking the trade off in full today, I’m going to take partial profits with a nifty structure that still gives me some exposure to short CMI. This is not a structure designed as a new trade. Rather, it’s only appropriate for me because of my existing position.
Action: CMI ($106.45) Sold the July 115/105/95 Put Butterfly at $4.15 for a $1.45 gain on my initial trade
-Sold 1 July 115 Put at 9.15
-Bought 2 July 105 Puts for 2.76
-Sold 1 July 95 Put at 0.52
New Position: Long the July 105/95 Put Spread at no cost
By selling the July 115/105/95 Put Butterfly, I’ve turned my Long July 115/105 Put Spread into a Long July 105/95 Put spread, and taken some gains in the meantime.
Given that 60% of CMI’s revenues are international, I still think that it has more downside. That’s part of the reason why I’ve targeted CMI on the short side on multiple occasions this year. This adjustment lets me take profits but still leaves me long a July put spread that can do well if CMI really sells off (and catches up to the China story, in my view).
Remember, to be clear, I would NOT initiate the new position as an opening trade if I had no existing position in CMI (for those interested). I like keeping some exposure to short CMI given my overall thesis for the name, but I also want to lock in some profits here. This structure allows me to do both.
Original Post May 23rd, 2013: New Trade $CMI – The Little Engine That Could
Cummins Engines is the comeback king, the little engine that could, if you will. Check out its major comebacks in the past year after earnings and guidance disappointments:
I’ve circled in red the major earnings misses over the past year, all coinciding with large volume spikes (lower panel), but all turning out to be capitulation points in hindsight. The most recent case was its earnings announcement on Apr 30th, after which the stock promptly bounced right off of its 200 day moving average.
- Earnings contracted 5% in 2012, and are expected to contract another 5% in 2013. Yet, the P/E multiple has actually expanded from 10 to 15x in that period, quite a leap of faith by investors.
- CMI has failed repeatedly at the 120 level over the past 3 years, so I like entries on the short side when the stock gets near there. Moreover, the fundamental picture now is worse than it has been at other times in that period.
- Chinese growth continues to disappoint. Here is the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for China over the last year, with the 0 level marked by a red line:
Cummins gets 60% of its revenues from outside the U.S. A large part of that industrial demand is driven by demand from China or related countries (like Brazil, whose growth is directly tied to China’s). Chinese economic weakness has hurt Cummins earnings (as exhibited by 2 straight years of declining numbers), but investors have continued to give this company a pass. Valuation at 15x is no bargain either.
Add it all up, and this is another good entry for a short-biased trade in CMI.
TRADE: CMI ($117.05) Bought the July 115 / 105 Put Spread for $2.70
-Bought 1 July 115 Put for 3.75
-Sold 1 July 105 Put at 1.05
Break-Even on July Expiration:
-Profits btwn 112.30 and 105, make up to 7.30 with max gain of 7.30 at 105 or below.
-Losses of up to 2.70 btwn 112.30 and 115 with max loss of 2.70 at 115 or higher.
Trade Rationale: CMI can move very quickly in both directions, so I wanted to do a long premium trade, but out to July, which should give me enough time to capture a decent sized down move in the name. The ideal target for the trade is the 200 day ma, now around 106, but of course I will be watching how the stock acts in the interim.