Trade Update May 10, 2013: BBY is down 7.5% since its peak 10 days ago on little news, another sign that the buying after the sale of its European business to Carphone was the last bit of euphoria in an incredible run for the stock in 2013. I’m going to take off my short call spread trade here given that it’s only worth 0.18. BBY is still a name with significant headline risk, so I don’t want to wait a full week to realize the balance of that time decay, even though there is a high likelihood that the call spread expires worthless for a max gain.
Action: Bought to close the BBY ($25.10) May18th 26 / 28 Call Spread for $0.20 for a $0.70 gain
Original Trade April 30, 2013, 10:23 am:
BBY is breaking out to new multiyear highs today on the news that it sold its European business to Carphone Warehouse. This stock has been on an amazing run in 2013, more than doubling in a very short span of time.
I did a quick fade-the-enthusiasm trade on BBY about a month ago, which I first entered because of very elevated call buying and an increasing momentum divergence. Since it was a countertrend trade, I was quick to exit for a profit.
Today is a very similar setup, as the call to put ratio to start this morning is around 5 to 1 (and the 1 week average is around 2 to 1), while the stock has now rallied to an area where there is a lot of long-term overhead resistance (between 28 and 30):
On the 1 year daily chart, it also now has an even lengthier RSI momentum divergence (shown by the red arrow), even as it makes a new high today:
The short interest in BBY has also declined to below 10% for the first time in more than a year. The fundamentals are certainly improving, but how much of that is reflected in the stock’s enormous rally? Not sure for the long-term, but in the short-term, I want to fade the euphoria:
TRADE: BBY ($26.70) Sold the May 26 / 28 Call Spread at $0.90
-Sold 1 May 26 Call at 1.50
-Bought 1 May 28 Call for 0.60
Break-Even on May Expiration:
Profits: Up to 0.90 between 26 and 26.90, max profit of 0.90 at 26 or below
Losses: Up to 1.10 btwn 26.90 and 28, max loss of 1.10 at 28 or above
Trade Rationale: I think BBY is close to done going up, but I’m less sure on how quickly it will pullback, which is why I chose to sell a call spread as opposed to buy a put spread. However, I’ll likely take this trade off on the first sharp move lower.