MorningWord 12/19/12: Enis and I had a very interesting dinner last night with a former emerging market strategist for a large bank and a global macro hedge fund manager, where we debated the prospects for the global economy in 2013, and thus where we saw investment opportunities. The conclusions were “clear as mud”, and not cause of the wine, but largely because the global economic outlook is largely predicated on continued central stimulus the world over at a time when some of the mightiest nations face austere times in a demand environment that seems tepid at best.
At the bottom of the “great recession” in 2009, coupled with the tailwinds of massive government bailouts of the private sector and hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus, the global economy was sparked by emerging market demand for raw materials that eventually flowed over to many other sectors, but particularly to Tech in the last few years. There are some obvious factors for Tech out-performance, most notably AAPL’s prominent weighting in the Nasdaq, but also certain secular trends such as mobile computing that exploded during this time period. The chart of Nasdaq (orange) vs. SPX index (black) since March 2009 bottom:
So as we debated the prospects in 2013 for equities, Jay Pelosky (some of you have read his guest posts on RR.com here), former Emerging Markets Strategist at Morgan Stanley, asked the question, “where is the new leadership going to come if AAPL’s recent descent in both earnings growth and stock performance is signalling a Tech stall?” One of the obvious answers would be energy if we get the reflation of global growth, particularly from emerging markets, but issues of newfound overcapacity appear to be keeping the energy sector range bound. Consumer Staples appear a bit expensive to their historical multiples, while Consumer Discretionary may be priced for perfection. Homebuilders and related material suppliers and Retailers appear to discount a good bit of the supposed U.S. housing recovery, while Utilities and Telecom and other popular “yield trades” appear to be a bit crowded. Investors are climbing over each-other to get in Financials stocks, for what doesn’t appear to be fundamental reasons at 18 month highs, more of a beta chase. So this basically leaves Healthcare and Industrials.
Industrials have recently broken out to new highs. This price action is in spite of weak global manufacturing data in the past 6 months. As we approach Q4 earnings season, watch this sector to see if it can take the baton of leadership, or fails when it’s asked to lead from the front. Will the recent rallies in stocks like CAT, CMI an JOY carry through into Q1 2013 and continue the late year rotation into 2012 laggards?
MorningWord 12/18/12: All seems clear on the western front, so to speak. Mr. Boehner appears to be spending more and more time with his friend Mr. Obama, maybe they are both feeling a bit sanguine with the Holiday’s upon us, or maybe the smoke signals coming out of said meetings are actually signalling some progress on bi-partisan “cliff” deal. Your guess is a good as mine as to the when, but make no mistake, it appears that both parties get the optics of appearing to be working hard for their constituents, and we will likely have some framework of a deal in the coming weeks.
However, we don’t think that’s any reason to get the egg nog out and give the all clear signal. As Enis pointed out in his Macro Wrap yesterday, the buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news possibility of price action after a deal is reached has prior precedent. With the market only 3% from 5 year highs, it is imprudent to get too excited about a well-telegraphed resolution.
As we have suggested on many occasions on the site over the last few weeks, equity and vol markets have not seemed to be too bothered by the prospect that we wouldn’t get a deal, regardless though we used the opportunity to position for one more 2-3% sell off prior to year end, which seems be increasingly unlikely as we get nearer to Christmas. Including today (and a half day on Christmas Eve) there are 7 and half trading days left in the year, and I think it is fairly safe to say that the range is in, likely up or down 2.5% from current levels, with the strong bias to flattish as portfolio managers do their best to mark their books in what is sure to be a low volume “holiday” trading environment.
But the look of calm could be in for a rude awakening when a page is turned on the new year if earnings and sales revisions continue their negative trend. That’s still how stocks are valued at the end of the day.
On the single stock front, an apparent trend over the last couple months, particularly in tech, has been the roatation out of some ytd winners into laggards, such as out of AAPL into stocks like CSCO, FB, YHOO, DELL and RIMM. While this is not an uncommon trend into and out of mutual fund’s year ends, it can often mask the under-performance over a greater period of time. Consider CSCO for instance, which is up about 11% ytd, up 35% from the 52 week lows made in July, but basically flat over the last 2 years, a period where the Nasdaq composite is up about 13.5%. In hindsight, CSCO was a fairly easy name to rotate into as the company has a fortress balance sheet with 30% of their market cap in cash, has a dividend yield 1% higher than the 10 yr treasury, a monster share buy-back, generates a ton of cash, is in the midst of a company-wide restructuring, and trades below a market multiple. My sense would be to hold off on chasing some of these names, the higher we go into year end, the greater the potential pull back could be in January as investors brace for what could be a rocky Q4 earnings reporting season.
One more thing on CSCO, a story on Bloomberg this morning caught my eye, ” Cisco Seen Needing Citrix-to-NetApp for Growth“, laying out the case that CSCO has a history of large acquisitions and that as recently as their Dec 7th analyst meeting, CEO John Chambers hinted at the potential for one on the offing. As I mentioned above, CSCO is by most standards a cheap stock given cash generation and balance sheet, but the company is only expected to grow earnings and sales in the middle single digits for years to come. The company will need to shed some slower growth capital intensive businesses and make a trans-formative acquisition if they have a prayer of getting back to the days of double digit growth that were common in the late 1990s and the middle part of the 2000s. With the perceived bull market back for the broad market, many, as Bloomberg did this am will start with the parlor game of “whos on the block”, I would also be cautious of chasing these “take-out” names as they have been rumored for years!
MorningWord 12/17/12: U.S. equity markets on Friday were once again dominated by AAPL’s plunge from its all time high made in Sept, with the stock making a new 10 month closing low. Even though AAPL confounded alot of investors and pundits during its 2012 parabolic move from $400 to $700 in the first nine months of 2012, the move from $700 back down is probably going feel a lot worse. In the last week we have seen a handful of analysts lower their 12 month price targets (some below $600), lower their 2013 earnings estimates (as a result of rumored iPhone5 order cutbacks in Asia) and now just this morning a DOWNGRADE from a bulge-bracket bank (Citi downgrades to Hold and $575 target).
As My esteemed colleague Enis just said to me, “story often follows price”. Now Enis is one of those geeky stock almanac sort of guys and loves to riff with ol’ skool Wall Street sayings, but as many think Citi is probably late to the game after the stocks 25% plus decline in the last 3 months, I would suggest that to downgrade the largest market cap company in the world at one of the largest banks in the world takes some serious vetting and would likely be the result of some serious conviction by their technology research team. This doesn’t mean they are going to be right, but I would also guess if the stock drops from here to below $450 that these guys would likely to slap a Buy rating back on the stock.
AAPL traded below $500 amidst all these headlines including AAPL’s press release that the company sold 2 million iPhone5’s in their opening weekend in China. Now the stock is actually trading up a couple bucks at $511 at 9am, I would suggest that the stock will likely break back below $500 and will need to find some footing early today or things could once again get ugly. The bulls and the bears will be pitted in a fierce battle today, and from a technical perspective it is going to be an uphill battle for the Bulls from where I am sitting. The fever has broken, the momentum has shifted, and if the stock can’t react positively to positive news, then watch out below. By no means do I think AAPL is a good press here on the short side, but for nimble traders (with defined risk, likely legging into weekly put spreads) it has been worth the shot. These are the sorts of trades that you can only risk what you are willing to lose, because much like the reversal we saw last month from $505, the turn will happen quickly and will likely be an intra-day reversal and if you are not in front of you screen to catch to action then you are likely to screw it up.
I am playing for the AAPL break of $500 through QQQ put spreads (laid out here), but I am very cautious to press the 10 month lows and at some point will look to be outright bullish in the name. On Friday I decided to play AAPL component supplier QCOM with a bullish slant looking at the Jan13 expiration as I felt the chip maker was being unfairly beaten up in sympathy with AAPL. I Traded 2 structures, the first was a Dec/Jan13 62.5 call calendar and the second was a Jan13 62.50/65 call spread. Again, just as I am not willing to step in and Press the short in AAPL, I don’t think it would be that prudent to try to “catch a falling knife” with an outright long in QCOM, as the stock’s technical set up could look challenged.