Trade Update Nov 19th, 2012 at 10:15am: Our timing on the AAPL 1×1 Call Spread on Friday has worked out very well. With AAPL up almost 8% from its Friday lows, prudence dictates that we take our 1 day gains on this trade, and be patient to see how the stock shakes out from here. We are leaving our long Jan13 1×2 call spread, so we are still involved in the name, but the risk/reward of an outright long delta bet here has quickly become less favorable as the stock has rallied so far, so fast.
Action: Sold to close the AAPL (548.00) Dec 525 / 545 1×1 Call Spread at $12.25 for a $4.55 gain
-Sold 1 AAPL Dec 525 Call at 35.00
-Bought 1 AAPL Dec 545 Call for 22.75
Original Trade Nov 16th, 2012: New Trade – $AAPL: Getting Long Delta with Call Spread
Like everyone, we’ve been watching AAPL’s freefall and wondering at what point it reaches at least a near term panic sell bottom. 522 was the potential double bottom low, and seemingly like every other level on the recent way down, it held for less than 24 hours. It’s tough to say exactly where the AAPL selling will end completely, as so many shares are held by big funds, but we do feel it could be near at least a near term reversal point. With that in mind we were looking for a fairly low risk way to play for a potential reversal:
Trade: Bought the AAPL ($518.50) Dec 525/545 call spread for $7.70
-Bought 1 Dec 525 call for 19.05
-Sold 1 Dec 545 call at 11.35
Break-Even on December expiration:
Profits above 532.70, max profit of 12.30 at 545. Losses up to $7.70 between 532.70 and 525, max loss of $7.70 below 525
Rationale and Expectations: This is not a trade that we would likely hold for too long on a reversal, and will likely keep a tight stop if the reversal doesn’t come. We’ll be looking for a reversal up day or 2 and likely take any profits at that point. The sentiment has gotten so bad in the stock, and we’re seeing more and more national coverage of the stock’s fall, which tends to be a contrarian indicator in such widely held names.
Yesterday we traded the 1×2 because we were not sure if AAPL was at a bottom. Now with the stock closer to the all-important $500 level, the outright “long delta” trade makes more sense here.
Volatility: If AAPL were to reverse or even start to base down here, volatility is likely to come in several points. This is another reason not to hold a long premium trade like this too long if it initially proves to be correct directionally.