Trade Update Nov 9th, 2012 at 9:39am: Back in early Oct when I first looked at JPM heading into their Q3 earnings report, I made the assumption that the results were not likely to be a big mover for the stock, but I wanted to use the elevated Implied Vol in Oct to help finance the purchase of Nov puts as I thought an Obama victory would cause downside volatility in the shares of bank stocks. So I bought a Oct Nov 41 Put Calendar. Earnings came and went, and the stock didn’t really budge, the Oct 41 Puts expired worthless, and then I spread the Nov 41 Put that I was long. My remaining position is long the Nov 41/40 Put Spread for only .06. Now with the stock below my long strike, and close to the short strike, the risk reward doesn’t not favor staying long the spread.
Action: Sold to Close JPM ($40.38 ) Nov 41/40 Put Spread at .50 for a .46 profit
Trade Update Oct 22nd, 2012: With Oct expiration come and gone, the Oct 41 Puts that I was short expired worthless, and I am left long the Nov 41 Puts, for .48, the price I paid for the calendar.
JPM is noticeably weaker today than its money-center peers BAC and C, which is likely a continuation of a rotation into C since its Q3 earnings last Monday and CEO change last Tuesday.
I am now going to spread the Puts that I own and reduce my premium risk and break-even level, but cap my potential gains.
Action: Sold to Open JPM ($41.80) Nov 40 Puts at .42
New Position: Long JPM Nov 41/40 Put Spread for .06
Break-Even on Nov Exp: my original cost for Calendar was .48, less the .42 I received for selling the Nov 40 Puts, so my Max Risk is .06, my Max Gain is .94 if the stock is 40 or below on Nov Expiration.
Original Post Oct 5th, 2012: New Trade JPM: Fading The Implied Earnings Move, Setting Up For Nov
Here is a preview of what I will be discussing tonight on Options Action on CNBC at 5pm:
JPM has certainly captured its share of headlines this year from the Euphoric 52 week highs made in late March after the company front ran the results of the Fed’s Stress Tests and raised their dividend prior to receiving the Fed’s blessing, to the early May disclosure of the company’s trading losses from the activities of the “London Whale” in their CIO office. As the chart below shows, the stock has been volatile with three 30% plus moves in about 9 months.
As we head into next Friday’s Q3 earnings report (pre-open), the options market is implying about a 3% move following the results which is a tad shy of the trailing 4 qtr avg move of about 3.4%.
The stock has since recovered the entire gap from the “Whale” mishap, and Implied Vol is trading within a couple points of the 52 week lows. The chart below shows how both IV and 5 yr CDS in the name has come in dramatically from the late Spring, early Summer levels, but oddly credit has spiked a little in the last few weeks. One silly theory here could be that as Obama pulled away a bit from Romney since the conventions, and some investors perceive greater financial regulation in Obama’s second term and thus potentially greater earnings risk for large money-center banks like JPM. Just a thought because I really cant come up with anything else, why the stock where it is, where Vol where it is, why their CDS would not be towards the recent lows.
MY VIEW: JPM and the “anointed one” Jamie Dimon have dodged their share of bullets in 2012 and in the end they are probably a better company as a result of the last 18 months. That being said, Q3 earnings will likely be less than exciting as trading volumes reached levels not seen for more than 5 yrs, and investment banking was also very likely weak. At this point bank stocks are not likely to trade off of backward looking results, and investors are going to be most focused on how these operations will find new ways to grow earnings and revenues, which under 4 more years of the Obama administration could be challenged.
I want to sell the implied move in Oct for earnings as I feel the qtr will be a non-event, and I want to set up for a bearish set up for an Obama victory in Nov.
TRADE: JPM ($41.96) Bought the Oct / Nov 41 Put Calendar for .48
-Sold 1 Oct 41 Put at .52
-Bought 1 Nov 41 Put for 1.00
Break-Even on Oct Expiration:
-If stock 41 or higher, the Oct 41 Puts will expire worthless and and I will own the Nov 41 Puts for .48, at that point I will look to spread them.
-If stock moves below 41 I will make the difference btwn the Oct that I am short and the Nov puts that I am long.
-My max risk is the .48 I paid for the Calendar
TRADE RATIONALE: This week’s presidential debate clearly changed the tone of the election, and with just a month to the big vote, there are many who are hopeful that the tides have just turned for the Republican challenger. Having nothing to do with what I hope the outcome is, I do not think Romney wins, and any new-found optimism for stocks/sectors that would have benefited from Obama & Co out of office, are likely to face disappoint in Nov.
Since I am selling Oct implied vol at 27.5 and buying Nov at 24.5, the trade sets up well for more volatility around the elections, particularly for a name like JPM, which has rarely realized less than 20 volatility in the past 3 years.
I am putting on a small position today (probably a 1/4 of that my position will be), and will take a much closer look on Wednesday and Thursday when it appears that my chosen strikes are appropriate heading into the print.