Alcoa kicks off “official” Q3 earnings season next week, reporting on Oct 9th, after the market close. Q3 earnings is where I expect this market to separate the wheat from the chaff. The macro data has been weak, but policy action has been very strong. At the end of the day, will corporate earnings hold up?
Here are some of the key reports between now and October expiry (only those that have formally announced their release date), with its 4 quarter avg move in parantheses:
- COST Oct. 10th (1.5%)
- WFC Oct. 12th (4%)
- JPM Oct. 12th (4.25%)
- C Oct. 15th (3%)
- CSX Oct. 16th (1.75%)
- GS Oct. 16th (3.25%)
- INTC Oct. 16th (3%)
- KO Oct. 16th (1.25%)
- AXP Oct. 17th (1.25%)
- BAC Oct. 17th (5.5%)
- EBAY Oct. 17th (7.25%)
- HAL Oct. 17th (4.25%)
- PEP Oct. 17th (2.25%)
- COF Oct. 18th (4%)
- CMG Oct. 18th (8.5%)
- JNJ Oct. 18th (0.5%)
- MSFT Oct. 18th (3%)
- NUE Oct. 18th (2.5%)
- PM Oct. 18th (2%)
- UNP Oct. 18th (3.5%)
- VZ Oct. 18th (1.75%)
- APD Oct. 19th (2.5%)
- BHI Oct. 19th (5.5%)
- GE Oct. 19th (1%)
- MCD Oct. 19th (2.25%)
- SLB Oct. 19th (1.5%)
There are many more, but some of the big names haven’t formally announced their release date, and I left off some smaller names that still might be interesting as earnings approaches.
Clearly, markets will have much more information about the robustness of global growth in the following few weeks. Commentary and guidance should also shed some light on how companies are preparing for the potential tax changes confronting them in 2013.
Markets overnight:
- Three days in a row now that markets have shown overnight weakness during Asian trading hours, but have rallied promptly after the European open. The Euro Stoxx 50 index is up almost 2% on the week (flat today), while U.S. indices are close to flat
- Chinese non-manufacturing PMI came in at 53.7, Australia’s trade deficit was wider than expected (Aussie dollar near 2 month lows), and eurozone composite PMI at 46.1 was slightly better than 45.9 expectation
- The dollar and Treasuries are slightly higher, while commodities are generally weaker, continuing a trend that has persisted most of the week (stronger stocks pre-open, other asset classes more risk-off)
- MON reports before the open, and MAR after the close. Some headlines in BBY that Schulze and team still studying potential buyout (stock up 3% pre-market)
- ADP Employment out at 8:15 am, ISM Non-Manufacturing released at 10 am