Enis’s Macro Wrap – August Optimism

by Enis August 13, 2012 7:46 am • Commentary

Quiet start again this morning.  The SPX was up each day last week (albeit, small up days, so only about 1% higher on the week), with light volume throughout, but marking the fifth straight week of gains.  Today’s start seems no different, indicating a 0.1% higher open in the futures market right now.

Europe continues to lead the rally.  Asia has actually closed in the red the past 2 days, only to see global risk rally shortly after the European open.  The Shanghai Composite closed down 1.5% overnight as the weakest market, while Spain and Italy are the strongest markets overnight, both up about 1%.

  • Light news day.  Japan’s GDP came in at 1.4% vs. the expected 2.3%, though markets there did not react much.
  • Standard Chartered is pushing for a settlement with New York regulators regarding its Iranian sanctions evasion
  • G20 leaders are planning a meeting in the fall to lower global food prices (maybe a rain dance?)
  • Bonds, the dollar, and commodities close to flat (Euro and oil exceptions, both higher)
  • Decent amount of economic data later in the week (no releases today).  Retail Sales on Tuesday and Philly Fed on Thursday likely the most important.