Chart of the Day – Fed Day of Reckoning

by Enis June 19, 2012 1:17 pm • Commentary

As all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve for tomorrow’s announcement, I compiled a chart of all of the previous FOMC releases since the March 2009 low in the SPX, with the release dates circled in red:


During the consistent rally of 2009 (and as a time of little change in Fed policy), the Fed meetings were generally non-events, with little change in the upward momentum.  In 2010, the Fed releases seemed more likely to come at turning points until QE2 was announced at Jackson Hole in August 2010, after which the strong rally began.

In 2011, there was a distinct sign of the FOMC meeting as a short-term inflection point for the markets.  Aside from the January 2011 meeting, every other meeting in 2011 was basically close to or at a short-term inflection point, as 2011 ended flat by the end of the year.

So far in 2012, the January meeting was a non-event, while the following 2 meetings were short-term tops.  Given that we’ve rallied into the event, and of course given all of my other indicators, I do think we are more likely near a short-term inflection point for a turn lower after the meeting tomorrow, though I obviously wish I didn’t have to sit through this painful rally in the meantime.