Tune in to Watch Enis on CNBC’s “Talking Numbers” at 3:20pm

by Dan May 23, 2012 3:04 pm • Commentary

RiskReversal’s new favorite son, Enis Taner will be on CNBC’s “Talking Numbers” segment, which should air live from the NYSE btwn 3:15 and 3:30pm.  Here are some quick notes about what he will be discussing:  

Enis is going to hit on some charts that help inform his macro view.

GLD: Gold recently broke its multi-year uptrend channel to the downside, and the recent weakness is accelerating, with today’s down move testing the December intra-day low of 148.  Anyone who has bought GLD since July 2011 is now sitting with a loss, but with the Euro at 21 month lows, and the commodity complex as a whole experiencing continued selling, this is not weakness to be bought.  Rather, weakness begets weakness on a multi-year break like this, and I think the next stop on GLD is $140.

[caption id="attachment_12300" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="5 Yr GLD chart from Bloomberg"][/caption]


Crude: The current weakness has been very persistent, as crude stalled at its 200 day moving average for a week with no bounce, then continued straight lower.  RSI is very oversold, but the reading has been so persistently oversold that it’s dangerous to buy it, as oversold can become more oversold.  If we do get a bounce, I would expect it to be contained by the 200 day moving average around 96, from where I would expect further future weakness.  Similar to gold, the strength of the dollar has been the driver of oil weakness, and I’d watch the dollar for clues as to when oil might find a bottom as well.  No signs of a bottom yet from the charts.

[caption id="attachment_12301" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="1yr Crude chart from Bloomberg"][/caption]