Your Breadth Really Stinks

by CC April 3, 2012 2:24 pm • Commentary

Below are the top 20 members of the SPX by weight. The top 10 make up ~20% of the entire index, while the 11-20 make up ~12%, so a combined ~32%.

-With the SPX up 12.3% ytd, it appears the rally is becoming fairly narrow, concentrated as evidence by the performance of only 10 stocks in the top 20 that have gains of more than 10%, while the other 10 are up less than 6%.

-When you look at the names that performed they were very specifically tech and financials, which is no great surprise as they were the 2 best performing sectors last qtr, but whats sticks out like a sore thumb is that energy and consumer names massively under-perform, despite the fact that many like KO, T, MRK etc are mostly within a few % from their 52 week highs.  Dividend payers are acting defensive as you would expect, and I guess while they are not helping to fuel the rally to new highs, they are not likely to hold things up if the leadership fails in the coming weeks.

Ticker % Weight ytd
in the Index Performance Div Yld
1 aapl        4.58 55% 4.58
2 xom        3.17 1% 2.20%
3 ibm        1.90 14% 1.43% 1.9
4 msft        1.86 23% 2.50% 1.86
5 cvx        1.66 1% 3%
6 ge        1.65 11% 3.41% 1.65
7 T        1.46 4% 5.60%
8 pg        1.45 1% 3.12%
9 wfc        1.42 25% 2.56 1.42
10 jnj        1.41 1% 3.46%
11 jpm        1.36 37% 2.64% 1.36
12 pfe        1.33 4% 3.90%
13 ko        1.31 5% 2.77%
14 goog        1.28 0%
15 pm        1.19 13% 3.48 1.19
16 brk/b        1.12 6%
17 intc        1.10 16% 2.98% 1.1
18 mrk        0.92 2% 4.35%
19 qcom        0.90 24% 1.47% 0.9
20 orcl        0.90 14% 0.82% 0.9
     31.99 16.86
-Also the chart below shows the SPX over the last 2 years vs Bloomberg’s composite 52 week new high index, the readings with the SPX above 1400 have been averaging well below 500, which also displays lack of participation by most stocks in the recent break out.
I stick with my contention that something has to give and soon, AAPL will not be able to hold up the broad market for much longer.  We may see AAPL go to $750 but at some point we will likely see a massive decoupling from the broad market and this cult stock, or worse they both get creamed.  While many market participants appear to be bracing for a broad market pull back it is hard to find similar sentiment among AAPL holders.
Also important to note that Bank Stocks stopped making new highs last week and many such as GS and BAC are at least 5% off of their recent highs.