TRADE UPDATE Feb 9th, 2012 at 11;13am: Well this turned out to be a disaster….I can honestly say I have never seen anything like it, or at least not since 1999/2000. The stock is clearly going to 500 today. I am going to cut my losses and sell half the Feb 480 puts I just bought at 4.00, my avg was 4.40. I suck in this name this week, but it will break soon enough……
Trade Update Feb 9th, 2012 at 10;06am: I was early in the AAPL Feb purchase (obviously)….since Tuesday the stock is up 20 points, or 4%. I sold half my position in the Feb 460 Puts, (avg of 2.50) at 1.50 yest and the second half this am at .90 with stock $486.
But as many of you know I can be stubborn, which sometimes equates to stupid….but I think we are very close to the fever breaking in AAPL.
With stock $486, I just bought the Feb $480 Puts for 4.60….will look to turn into a put spread when/if the stock starts going my way…..
Update: 3:40, Feb 8th.
Well clearly I was early on this one. AAPL continues to scream higher. Currently at 476, I’m going to lick my wounds and dump half this trade at 1.50. Will try to get a better fell for the stock and either re-enter or bail entirely. Stay tuned.
Original Post
With AAPL now up 15% ytd and seemingly making new all time highs every day, As a trader I have been dying to short the stock….that said I was also dying to do so prior to their fiscal Q1 report, but abstained, luckily.
The chart below shows a an uptrend that has been intact since last spring, but now touching the upper end, this seems as good as time as any to get in an attempt to short (with defined risk) a name that everyone loves. Also helping me to this decision is that I feel the market is a bit overbought at current levels and we are due for a pullback.
[caption id="attachment_8646" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="1 YR AAPL chart from Bloomberg LP"]
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TRADE: AAPL ($466.30) Bought the Feb18th 460 Puts for 2.73
-Looking to leg into a put spread when the stock starts to go my way.
Break-Even On Feb18th Expiration:
Profits below $457.27
Losses of up to 2.73 btw 457.27 and 460 with max loss of 2.73 460 or higher (less than 1% of the underlying).