FXE: The Euro vs the Dollar has been trading very technically of late and in some ways like a yo-yo between weakness related to sovereign debt issues in Europe and the potential for a weaker second half and end to stimulus over here…..
I am not anything near an expert when it comes to macro issues, and certainly not currencies…but with tonight’s confidence vote in Greece and the potential for austerity measures not to pass next week I want to make a low premium bet that the Euro comes back in to test the 140 level and ultimately hits its 200 day moving average by July expiration.
[caption id="attachment_2838" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="1 yr FXE chart provided by "]
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I want to express this view in the FXE, the etf set to track the performance of the Euro vs the USD.
TRADE; FXE ($143.30) BUY the July 140/138/136 Put Fly for .20
-Buy 1 July 140 Put for .95
-Sell 2 July 138 Puts at 1.10 (.55 each)
-Buy 1 July 136 Put for .35
Break-Even on July Expiration:
Btwn 140 and 139.80 lose up to .20,
Btwn 139.80 and 138 make up to 1.80
Best Case at 138 make full 1.80 or 10x you rmoney
Btwn 138 and 136 the pay-out trails off and
136 or below lose .20
DISCLOSURE: I am bidding and getting hit, paying .16.