Some updates on some outstanding trades mentioned on Risk Reversal
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TRADE: AAPL (~$346) Buy the June10 weekly335 Put for 1.05
Break-Even on June10 weekly Expiration:
Upside: above 336.05 lose 1.05, bwtn 335 and 335.05 lose up to 1.05
Downside: below 334.95 have unlimited gains to zero.
NOW: AAPL $333, the puts are 4.35 bid….I sold some at 3.20 and 4.00 this morning…..but yesterday spread half of the position (updated on Quick Hits). I sold the June10 weekly 330 Puts at 1.05, so I locked in the June10 wkly335/330 Put Spread for even money….
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TRADE: XOM ($81) BUY the July 77.50 /75 / 72.50 Put Fly for .20
-Buy 1 July 77.5 Put for 1.00
-Sell 2 July 75 Puts at 1.20 (.60 each)
-Buy 1 July 72.5 Put for .20
Break-Even On July Expiration:
-btwn 77.50 and 77.30 lose up to .20
-btwn 77.30 and 75 make up to 2.30
-at 75 make 2.30 or 11x your money
-Btwn 75 and 72.50 you payout trails off
-75 or below lose .20
NOW: XOM $80.69….basically at the same price, I think the stock is going to break and this is a low premium (high reward) way to play a move back to support at $75.
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TRADE: NKE (~$84.26) BUY the July 80/75/70 Put Fly for ~.50
-Buy 1 July 80 Put for 1.35
-Sell 2 July 75 Puts at 1.10 (.55 each)
-Buy 1 July 70 Put for .25
Break-Even on July Expiration:
-stock above 80 lose .50
-Stock btwn 80 and 79.50 lose up to .50,
-stock bwtn 79.50 and 75 make up to 4.50
-stock 75 make 4.50
-stock btwn 75 and 70 payout trails off
-stock below 70 lose .50
NOW: NKE $81.35 the Fly is worth about .80, I want to leave this one on as I still believe earnings can serve as a negative catalyst….
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TRADE: NFLX (~272.50) Jun10 weekly 260/250/240 put fly. .80
Posted on On Quick Hits: Jun 3 2011, 11:44 AM
max gain is 9.20 if stock is 250,
max loss is .80 if stock above 260 or below 240 on next Friday’s close.
NOW: stock $264.50, the fly is worth 1.20, I sold some of this yesterday when it was 1.60 bid on the lows….I am sticking with as I think today’s relief rally will fail and this stock has some more room to the downside…possibly $250 this week.
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from Quick Hits Jun 2 2011, 10:18 AM
TRADE: GOOG
Bought GOOG (~$525) Jul 500 Puts for 9.10,
July exp should catch earnings, will leg into a Put Spread, want to sell the 450s at some point.
NOW: GOOG $522.40, puts are worth 9.50, I still like this one here and think has downside on potential for poor earnings to $450 over the summer….the stock is very oversold though, down 12% on the year….want to be tactical and define risk. I am selling the July 480 put against these at 5.10….so now I have the July 500/480 Put Spread on for 4.00, risking 4.00 to make 16 if the stock is 480 or lower…will look to roll to Aug for earnings at some point….
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TRADE: JPM (43.20) BUY July 42/39 Put Spread for .75
-Buy July 42 Put for 1.20 and
-Sell July 39 Put at .45
Break-Even on July Expiration:
above 42 lose .75
btwn 42 and 41.25 lose up to .75,
btwn 41.25 and 39 make up to 2.25,
below 39 (down10%) make 2.25 or ~3x your money
NOW: JPM $41.10 spread worth 1.25, I think you have this one right where you want it, yesterday when stock was below 41 I took a little off, but want to stick with this as the stock will break 40 and soon…..
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